Effective Management Decision Making.pdf

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Ian Pownall
Effective Management Decision Making
An Introduction
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Effective Management Decision Making: An Introduction
© 2012 Ian Pownall &
bookboon.com
ISBN 978-87-403-0120-5
3
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Effective Management Decision Making
Contents
Contents
Introduction
Chapter 1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Effective Management Decision Making: Introduction
The Duality of Decision Making?
Types of Business and Management Decisions
Who is involved in Decision Making?- The Decision Body
The three phased model
Summary
Key terms and glossary
Chapter 2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
Developing rational models with qualitative methods and analysis: Data forecasting
Simple Averaging Forecasting
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting
Errors, accuracy and confidence
Causal forecasting (explanatory forecasting)
Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve fitting
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60
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Effective Management Decision Making
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
Multiple regression and partial regression analysis
Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality
Summary
Key Terms and glossary
Chapter 3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities
The Decision tree – a map of the solution set
Decision Analysis
More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values (EMVs)
Revising problem information – Bayes Theorem
The Value of Sample and Perfect Information
Summary
Key Terms and glossary
Chapter closing question
Chapter 4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
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Contents
Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis:
Distribution Functions and Queuing Theory
The mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables
The discrete distribution – the binomial function
Extending binomial number sequences
360°
thinking
.
360°
thinking
.
360°
thinking
.
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Discover the truth at www.deloitte.ca/careers
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Discover the truth
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at www.deloitte.ca/careers
the ad to read more
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

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